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    21st Century Ideas: How can futures organizations help when a timeline has been forecasted?

    With the GEAS report, has forecasting become obsolete?

    Started by: literatilisa Raves:4

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    One of the main goals of most futures organizations is to help people create a better future for themselves, their organizations, and the world at large - usually looking 10 or more years into the future. But what happens when a timeline has been set? Especially one so close? IFTF has struggled in 2019, most people are losing faith in the future and setting their stock with the GEAS report. They want to know what will happen in the next 23 years, but not after that. People are looking for black and white answers, something IFTF has discouraged in favor of examining dilemmas and solutions. So the question is, where do IFTF and other futures organizations fit in a VUCA world with a semi-definite timeline?

    Forecasting exists in a world of optimism. To create, imagine, or believe in forecasts, you have to have a certain level of optimism about the future. Today, humanity's future has a cap on it, at least for the time being. I still feel optimistic about the future, 324 superstructures can't be wrong! But as an IFTF affiliate, and former full-time employee, I've noticed that the value of forecasting has gone down dramatically since the GEAS report. I'm concerned that humanity is losing hope, losing our inherent optimism, and this can have disastrous consequences for the fight against the superthreats. What do you guys think about the future of futures forecasting?

    This is the time when futures organizations can move into the realm of persuasive forecasting. Produce positive forecasts that show if we do this, then the result will be that in 2053. Use forecasting as a tool help people imagine a future past the GEAS report and thereby influence their behavior to be more proactive and beneficial to our goal of fighting the superthreats.

    Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs pops to mind as I read these comments. Once people feel safe and well tended then I think they are better equipped to extend into theirs and others future... If you are not well connected yet into this process consider joining the Superstruct: Outposts of One, to assist others as well as yourself as we work towards our better future together.

    The forecasts themselves are an interesting problem. How does a forecast affect an at-risk population? You'll probably see the 5 stages of mourning and you'll also probably see renewed commitment to make changes, but what if, after all of our energy, we still see forecasts that predict dire consequences? Do we quit? Fight even harder? And what will others do? How would you feel if you weren't currently involved in trying to change the forecast? Would you become more wasteful? Become more religious? Join us and change? I think there is a need for outreach on this level. I have created the Forecast Outreach Team and I encourage everyone to join and help spread the message about the forecasts. We need to keep people working and hoping for change.

    Jinxremoved, you raise a really interesting point - how do we forecast for an at-risk population - and I think that is at the center of all of this. People have given up on forecasting because they don't see the point, but that just means they have given up on what they can do to stop all of this. The negative forecasts do create a renewed commitment to change, but often times people don't follow through on their ideas. In 2008, Institute for THE Future was all about foresight, to insight, to action - now we've got the foresight and the insights and we're starting to make headway on action, but the cycle is about to restart itself. If we keep acting, and the survival horizon keeps getting pushed out, then there will be a need to return to the foresight end of the cycle to figure out where to go next.

    Forecasting is never obsolete. Forecasting is always based on myriad variables. Focus on the thing that brings you most joy, and from that fulcrum IMAGINE the most outrageous potential for us that you can... then we'll go for it!!!!!




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