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GEAS: Understanding Superthreats

With both a whimper and a bang.
GEAS Jamais Cascio

One of the most common questions GEAS gets from the press is just how this particular set of problems (the "superthreats") could possibly pose an extinction risk to the human species. Of the five, only the Quarantine threat has a clear potential to reduce human population significantly, but even there, extinction seems highly unlikely. And the connection between Generation Exile or Power Struggle and extinction is, for many observers, elusive at best.

I've found that the best response is with an analogy. Most of us have, at some time in our lives, played one of those tower games where you remove one piece from a stack of blocks, then the other player removes one, etc., until it collapses. Often, the final piece removed isn't in an obviously critical place -- players aren't trying to knock the tower over. As a result, the collapse of the tower doesn't come from the removal of a key piece, but by small vibrations of the table (or even motion of the air) overwhelming the remaining structural stability of the tower. But the only reason such a small vibration could bring the structure down is that enough individually sub-critical components have been removed. No one block caused the collapse; it was the combined loss that made it possible. 

So it is with the Superthreats. As a civilization, we have, for the past century at least, been pulling blocks out from our tower, even as we continue to pile bricks on the top. So far, although the stack of blocks has been occasionally shaky, it's remained standing. With the superthreats, however, the continued structural stability of this tower is imperiled by the simultaneous loss of individually non-critical pieces. The tower becomes vulnerable to the slightest motion.

The slightest motion, in our case, is the emergence of a major shock, such as a multi-state war, a rapidly-spreading pandemic (on top of ReDS), a significant environmental disaster, a minor asteroid impact, a bioterror event, and so on. Shocks that, under other conditions, would stress the international community greatly (financially, politically, technologically, spiritually), but not fatally. Under the Superthreat conditions, however, the civil structures that would allow us to cope are so weakened that they collapse, and disease, starvation, broken social networks, broken infrastructure, and resource conflicts spiral out of control.

Most WorldRun simulations show the human population going from 7 billion to 1.5 billion in the course of five years, once collapse sets in, then down to under 500 million in another ten years. The best-case scenarios, assuming that we do nothing to alleviate the superthreats, leave about 20 million people alive, worldwide, by 2070, and under a million by 2100.

But those scenarios no longer apply. We have begun to act. The survival horizon is extending. I am convinced that we can -- we will -- prevail, and human civilization will continue. 

Oct 09


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  • Ruud Dirven
    Oct 10
    Jamais tbh if someone doesnt undestand how these five superthreats can rip apart our societies (after watching the upheaval a little credit issue is causing) they need psychotherapy and medication and transcranial stimulation to reactivate the imagination neurons in their brain. It is blatantly obvious.
  • Foundation
    Oct 10
    What\\\'s odd to me about the superthreats is that certain ones will eventually become less and less of a threat as collapse progresses. Exile will diminish as people die, with less people, food demand goes down so Ravenous gets \\\"solved\\\" same with Power. The only lingering issues are ReDS and the difficulty for coordinating efforts due to Outlaws.
  • Ruud Dirven
    Oct 12
    It is very clear to specify that any of the above superthreats won't threaten humanity per se - in fact they may abort a technological progress into a more dangerous era (beyond 2030, where we may develop nanotechnology, AI, cognitive tech and advanced biotech) where we may become powerful enough to actually eradicate life on earth down to the tectonic bacteriological level. If any of the 5 superthreats in superstruct wins out, we will be reduced to a pleistonecene-analogue "Mad Max" scenario with several tens of millions of survivors struggling for access to remaining luxuries. We are basicly fighting to make sure we dont collapse into a worldwide Somalia model.
  • TomC
    Oct 13
    Something is wrong. ReDS is described as 10% fatal after 5 years, 3M are dead of it, but only 25M have this highly infectious disease? If 25M were inflected 5 years ago, 3M dead would be about right - but by now it would likely have already spread world-wide! One possibility is that the deaths so far have been exaggerated. (That would leave us at about the same level of threat, so don't get your hopes up.) Another possibility is that ReDS has a much shorter mortality time - 10% dying in perhaps 6 months, rather than 5 years. But I doubt the WHO would have made such a basic mistake... UNLESS... maybe ReDS is really two look-alike diseases: one that we can detect and diagnose, which has a 5 year 10% mortality rate; and another that looks nearly identical to the first in the final stages, but which has a much shorter mortality period. Or possibly the majority of people with ReDS show no major symptoms for years - and so have gone un-diagnosed - but then quickly develop the symptoms and die. Had a recurring cold or minor fever in the past few years? Maybe you'd better go get a blood test...
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