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GEAS: Rethinking the Survival Horizon

As we act, we learn.
GEAS Jamais Cascio

The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle -- a basic concept from quantum physics -- tells us, in effect, that the act of measuring the location and motion of a particle changes those very characteristics.

The same is true with the future.

The very act of publishing the GEAS report changed the future. We tried to account for that, a bit at least, in some of our later simulation runs, but the funny thing was that some of the models had the report bringing about a functional extinction event much sooner than 2042, and some had the report pushing out the survival horizon considerably. In the end, we realized that we needed to learn more about how people would actually respond before we could understand what we ourselves had done.

I have to say, the first few days after the report went out scared us. Riots around the world, a massive jump in suicides, and nearly three hundred death threats against Audrey Chen in the first 12 hours. Some of us running quick & dirty versions of the WorldRun sim started to get results showing a survival horizon of 2030.

But Superstruct changed all of that.

It gave immediate focus to the incipient efforts to deal with the crisis. It offered us all a framework for creative resilience. The survival horizon dates in our quick sims bounced back up, and we started to feed the Superstruct responses into our main WorldRun model.

The results were outrageously positive. Within the first 24 hours, we saw a push on the global survival horizon of eight years, with just a few superstructures in play. But we started to look closely at our data, and found an error.

Fixing the error sobers us up a bit -- it cuts the immediate impact of superstructure projects to 10% of the initial rating. Instead of boosting our survival horizon by eight years in the first day, we've really pushed it by about seven months. We're considering resetting the impact calculations for Super-Empowered Hopeful Individuals accordingly: 1000 points give us a year, up from 100 points.

The thing is, seven months in less than a day is still outrageously good, and gives us at GEAS the first real sense of hope we've had in awhile. We really can do this. We really can break through these crises, and avoid extinction.

It's just going to take a bit more work than we initially thought.

Oct 08
geas,Survival Horizon,Simulations


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  • gmoke
    Oct 07
    Some quotes that may resonate: We remain alert so as not to get run down, but it turns out you only have to hop a few feet to one side and the whole huge machinery rolls by, not seeing you at all. Lew Welch the war that matters is the war against the imagination all other wars are subsumed in it. Diane Di Prima Quite clearly, our task is predominantly metaphysical, for it is how to get all of humanity to educate itself swiftly enough to generate spontaneous social behaviors that will avoid extinction. R. Buckminster Fuller
  • jorgeguberte
    Oct 07
    Just a thought: how can the Heisenberg Principle and the Rope Theory applied to individuals be connected? If they can be connected in some way, of course.
  • daniel
    Oct 08
    Can you help find the most powerful solutions? http://superstructgame.org/StoryView/143
  • eek
    Oct 10
    Whew. Glad the horizon has benevolence written in to the code. Takes a while to get to flow....flowing.
  • Nitenurse
    Oct 14
    This is ridiculous. You can predict the future? Congratulate yourself as much as you want for how much you've pushed back the "survival horizon." You're retarded.
  • BradleyAPerkins
    Oct 19
    Measuring is critical because it starts a conversation, and these conversations have the potential to lead to action. Even if the model is wrong - and all models are wrong - it's a critical step in catalyzing action.
  • NzRoo
    Oct 20
    Awesome story!
  • solspire
    Oct 23
    Agree with Bradley, anytime we document a perspective or intentionally focus on an issue, we are mapping the ground to leap from. If every contribution is a dot, we can start to form the landscape. Visual models of these relational connections can help.
  • thejlady
    Oct 30
    Information is empowering. Just don't shoot the messenger. Being part of a collective focus group keeps fear from creeping in. Just keep the info coming
  • Rhonda
    Nov 12
    Being able to "push the global survival horizon" by seven months is a great start. All we need to do is figure out what else we can to do in our close knit communities to push it even further.
  • Dknapman
    Nov 12
    Wow very intense post but really interesting. You brought up points that I could have never even imagined. I really like how you pointed out that Superstruct was there and had changed everything. Great post!
  • merdaINK
    Nov 18
    "In the end, we realized that we needed to learn more about how people would actually respond before we could understand what we ourselves had done." amazing insight.
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